Sprint Commitment vs Forecast: Planning with Velocity
Understand the difference between committing to sprint goals and forecasting delivery. Learn how velocity informs both without over-promising.
Detailed Explanation
Commitment vs Forecast
The 2020 Scrum Guide replaced "commitment" with "forecast" for Sprint Backlog items. This shift reflects an important nuance: a sprint plan is an educated prediction, not a guarantee.
Sprint Commitment
Commitment refers to the Sprint Goal -- the overarching objective. The team commits to achieving the goal, even if some individual stories are dropped or adjusted.
Sprint Forecast
The forecast is the set of backlog items the team believes it can complete based on historical velocity. It is explicitly allowed to be imperfect.
Velocity: 30 points (average over 6 sprints)
Std Dev: 4 points
Forecast for Sprint 7:
Pulled: 28 points (slightly under average for safety)
Goal: "Complete user authentication flow"
How Velocity Helps
| Decision | How Velocity Informs It |
|---|---|
| How many points to pull | Use average minus small buffer |
| Whether to add a stretch story | Only if under average + std dev |
| When to push back on scope | When request exceeds average |
| How to set the Sprint Goal | Focus on highest-priority items that fit |
Anti-Pattern: Over-Committing
Teams that consistently plan above their velocity create a cycle of carryover, stress, and declining morale. The Scrum Master should protect the team's capacity by referencing historical velocity data.
Healthy Planning Rhythm
- Calculate average velocity from last 3-5 sprints
- Pull items totaling 90-95% of that average
- Identify 1-2 stretch items if capacity allows
- Commit to a Sprint Goal, forecast the stories
Use Case
Use this guide during sprint planning meetings when deciding how much work to pull, or when coaching teams that consistently over-commit.